However, I need to step in when they start advertising their chase system records. You see claims of "33-0 record the past six months!" or something like that. Your first reaction is "This tout is DAMN GOOD!!! 33 wins without a loss...sign me up now!"
But before you do, let's examine what a chase system entails, and more importantly, the traps that are set for the unsavvy bettor.
A chase is made up of one to a maximum designated number of events. The betting strategy is to double down on each loss (plus some extra to handle vigorish). If the first event loses, then the bettor doubles his bet for the second event. If that one loses, he doubles yet again on the third event. He does this all the way up to the maximum designated number of events. If he loses THAT event, he has "lost the chase"... and a whole lot of moolah!
In chase parlance, each event up to the designated number of events is called a "leg." A base bet is made on this leg. Winning on any leg constitutes a win for the chase, and the chase sequence reverts to the first leg. On a push, the bettor remains on the current leg with its current bet amount. For simplicity, I will use even odds to explain the sequence. In reality, each leg would be more.
Let's say the base unit bet is $10.
Example 1: Straight Chase to 5
(Translation: Chase sequence is set to go 5 events if necessary; "Straight" means simple doubling strategy.)
Leg 1: Bet $10
- Bet wins: Bettor wins Leg 1 and Chase, wins $10 for Leg; no earlier chase losses so profit is $10 for Chase.
- Bet loses: Bettor loses Leg 1, loses $10, down total of $10, moves on to Leg 2.
Leg 2: Bet $20
- Bet wins: Bettor wins Leg 2 and Chase, wins $20 for Leg; minus earlier down total of $10, wins $10 total for Chase.
- Bet loses: Bettor loses Leg 2, loses $20, down total of $30, moves on to Leg 3.
Leg 3: Bet $40
- Bet wins: Bettor wins Leg 3 and Chase, wins $40 for Leg; minus earlier down total of $30, wins $10 total for Chase.
- Bet loses: Bettor loses Leg 3 , loses $20, down total of $70, moves on to Leg 4.
Leg 4: Bet $80
- Bet wins: Bettor wins Leg 4 and Chase, wins $80 for Leg; minus earlier down total of $70, wins $10 total for Chase.
- Bet loses: Bettor loses Leg 4, loses $80, down total of $150, moves on to Leg 5.
Leg 5: Bet $160
- Bet wins: Bettor wins Leg 5 and Chase, wins $160 for Leg; minus earlier down total of $150, wins $10 total for Chase.
- Bet loses: Bettor loses Leg 5, loses $160, combined with hs previous down total of $150, nets the Bettor for a $310 LOSS.
Now, I don't know about you, but there is something scary about betting in this manner. Keep in mind that I've put down the MINIMUM amount of money to bet to win $10, assuming all bets are +100 or better. With spread, runline, or puckline events where the break-even vig is -110, that would translate to $10, $21, $43, $90, and $189 for Legs 1 through 5 respectively, which renders your total loss to $353... all for pursuit of that $10 (actually, $9.09) win.
So if a snake-oil handicapper states that he's "30-1", that means that he's won $300 ($10 x 30 events). But that one loss is not a simple 10-dollar loss. It signifies he lost 5 events, total of $310, or a NET LOSS of $10! 60-2, 90-3 records, etc. also show losses.
Finally, BE AWARE that the snake-oil handicapper may not be marketing this as a Chase system. He's banking on the fact that many unsavvy bettors will not understand the distinction between a Chase win and a Straight-Up win, at least in that "Buy Me Now" mode. In fact, you may not even have any clue it's a Chase system until you purchase their service and they lay down the fine print at that time.
Basically, any claim like this MUST be a Chase system. So, as always, Buyer Beware.
Next week, I will explain more in detail about the Chase systems, and will also relate how a prominent handicapper is doing on HIS chase sequence.
0 comments:
Post a Comment