"Datacappers" vs. "Handicappers"

With the advent of micro-computing has come the ability for the sports handicapper to crunch numbers with far more information at his beck and call. Indeed, my own sideline is the ability to retroanalyze systems for handicappers, no matter how skilled or experienced they are. For the most part, the difference between the wannabes and the real pros are the amount of time they invest in honing their correlative skills, as well as intangibles that take a lot of development and insight into the particular sports, their knowledge of the principles (namely, players, but peripherally coaches), and finally, their own internalized intuition.

And then there is a new breed...the "Datacappers."

Armed with nothing but historical box score data and as much quantifiable figures they can get their megabytes on, the datacappers play with the numbers as much as possible, trying to eke out the elusive "key" that will trigger future winnings. ERA stats vs. OBP of batters; steals vs. slugging percentages; the datacappers scrutinizes data until they believe they have come up with a consistent theme. Using historical odds, they determine if they, indeed, have found the Holy Grail of the sports bettor: The consistent 56% aggregate winning percentage that doubles a bankroll, annually, with disciplined betting patterns, over a 9.09% vigorish amount.

As someone who is admittedly lax (hell, downright ignorant) in trying to identify the trends of using box score statistics, I'm nevertheless fascinated by the correlations that some of my clients bring to the table. Essentially, a datacapper is nothing but a "business rule" creator; someone who creates a formula based upon past performances. Now, sound analysis of past events is a must for any competent handicapper, but the difference between the two is this:

• A Datacapper makes his plays based strictly on the results of the data analysis and the ensuing formula answer
• A Handicapper uses the analysis as a baseline, then he makes his picks upon painstaking, intangible correlation between the past data and his own intuitive, fact-based experiences to craft a more substantial pick

Now, does this make Datacappers amateurs? No, not entirely. Many good handicappers use pen and paper, or at the most simple Excel spreadsheets, to chart their picks with no automation. But many handicappers use their own correlative skills to craft their selctions. However, such handicappers may be spending time on essentially trying to figure out, literally, by pencil and paper, how past data ties into the current event play.

So datacappers would have this information, literally instantly, at their beck and call. To that end, datacappers have hit upon one of a handicapper's biggest needs: a quantifiable data cruncher that funnels the pertinent data for analysis.

Where the datacapper remains an amateur is when he does no further research into the pick. A Handicapper would look at the data and correlate it with his own experiences, no matter if he gathered the data by computer or by hand. There may be injuries, players with personal problems, unique field dynamics, and a whole slew up unquantifiable data that play as much into the value of a bet as past performance trends.

So the bottom line: A datacapper is not a handicapper, and should never be considered a true handicapper. A handicapper may use an automated data service, but it is only the start of his selection process, not an end-all. And that is what separates the Handicapper from the Datacapper.

Chase System Snake Oil Marketing

First of all, I generally respect the mainstream handicappers who market their services with vigor. I realize that the catchwords "Lock" and "Can't Miss!!" are a necessary component to attract those bettors looking for a quick win, but for the most part, established handicappers and their agents understand that their long-term success are built upon a consistent, sustained winning record.

However, I need to step in when they start advertising their chase system records. You see claims of "33-0 record the past six months!" or something like that. Your first reaction is "This tout is DAMN GOOD!!! 33 wins without a loss...sign me up now!"

But before you do, let's examine what a chase system entails, and more importantly, the traps that are set for the unsavvy bettor.

A chase is made up of one to a maximum designated number of events. The betting strategy is to double down on each loss (plus some extra to handle vigorish). If the first event loses, then the bettor doubles his bet for the second event. If that one loses, he doubles yet again on the third event. He does this all the way up to the maximum designated number of events. If he loses THAT event, he has "lost the chase"... and a whole lot of moolah!

In chase parlance, each event up to the designated number of events is called a "leg." A base bet is made on this leg. Winning on any leg constitutes a win for the chase, and the chase sequence reverts to the first leg. On a push, the bettor remains on the current leg with its current bet amount. For simplicity, I will use even odds to explain the sequence. In reality, each leg would be more.

Let's say the base unit bet is $10.

Example 1: Straight Chase to 5
(Translation: Chase sequence is set to go 5 events if necessary; "Straight" means simple doubling strategy.)

Leg 1: Bet $10

• Bet wins: Bettor wins Leg 1 and Chase, wins $10 for Leg; no earlier chase losses so profit is $10 for Chase.
  
• Bet loses: Bettor loses Leg 1, loses $10, down total of $10, moves on to Leg 2.

Leg 2: Bet $20

• Bet wins: Bettor wins Leg 2 and Chase, wins $20 for Leg; minus earlier down total of $10, wins $10 total for Chase.
  
• Bet loses: Bettor loses Leg 2, loses $20, down total of $30, moves on to Leg 3.

Leg 3: Bet $40

• Bet wins: Bettor wins Leg 3 and Chase, wins $40 for Leg; minus earlier down total of $30, wins $10 total for Chase.
  
• Bet loses: Bettor loses Leg 3 , loses $20, down total of $70, moves on to Leg 4.

Leg 4: Bet $80

• Bet wins: Bettor wins Leg 4 and Chase, wins $80 for Leg; minus earlier down total of $70, wins $10 total for Chase.
  
• Bet loses: Bettor loses Leg 4, loses $80, down total of $150, moves on to Leg 5.
  

Leg 5: Bet $160

• Bet wins: Bettor wins Leg 5 and Chase, wins $160 for Leg; minus earlier down total of $150, wins $10 total for Chase.
  
• Bet loses: Bettor loses Leg 5, loses $160, combined with hs previous down total of $150, nets the Bettor for a $310 LOSS.

Now, I don't know about you, but there is something scary about betting in this manner. Keep in mind that I've put down the MINIMUM amount of money to bet to win $10, assuming all bets are +100 or better. With spread, runline, or puckline events where the break-even vig is -110, that would translate to $10, $21, $43, $90, and $189 for Legs 1 through 5 respectively, which renders your total loss to $353... all for pursuit of that $10 (actually, $9.09) win.

So if a snake-oil handicapper states that he's "30-1", that means that he's won $300 ($10 x 30 events). But that one loss is not a simple 10-dollar loss. It signifies he lost 5 events, total of $310, or a NET LOSS of $10! 60-2, 90-3 records, etc. also show losses.

Finally, BE AWARE that the snake-oil handicapper may not be marketing this as a Chase system. He's banking on the fact that many unsavvy bettors will not understand the distinction between a Chase win and a Straight-Up win, at least in that "Buy Me Now" mode. In fact, you may not even have any clue it's a Chase system until you purchase their service and they lay down the fine print at that time.

Basically, any claim like this MUST be a Chase system. So, as always, Buyer Beware.

Next week, I will explain more in detail about the Chase systems, and will also relate how a prominent handicapper is doing on HIS chase sequence.

Welcome to the SportsBet Tracker Blog!

Welcome to the SportsBet Tracker Blog. My name is Chad Horace, and I'm the developer of the SportsBet Tracker bet tracking application that helps any person become a competent sports bettor. To download the free application, just click the "Download Info" link on the sidebar and get the app.

One of the great things about sports betting is that it is the only major wagering event that does not rely solely on the natural laws of probability. Those laws of probability created the basis for the gambling industry as a whole, allowing promoters to essentially build a profit margin based upon the amount of projected events (bets).

Take craps, for instance. To roll two sixes, or boxcars, the odds are 6 x 6, or 36 to 1. But the house pays out at 32 to 1. So 1 - ((32-1)/36) = 0.1389; converting to percentage, the house has a vigorish of 13.89%. This means, for every dollar gambled, the take is about 14 cents. Multiply that by a hundred rolls, and that's $14. Multiply it by a 100 thousand, and that's $14,000. Multiply it by 100 million, and well, now we are talking about how those topless pools on the hotel roofs are financed.

(Super math types; I understand that a little thingy called "Standard Deviation" may affect short and even medium-term runs. But that's a bit too MIT-ish for this blog.)

"OK, Chad, I know damn well how the House advantage is built in. How does this compare to betting on the Colts or the Lakers?"

Simple answer: The odds are not solely based upon the laws of nature. They are based upon the human interpretation of an event. Granted, odds setting for events are not done by chance. There are many factors that allow an oddsmaker to calculate the value of an event. Indeed, most oddsmakers are **damn good** at what they do. But "damn good" is not "PERFECT," like casino gaming odds.

These imperfections are what allow handicappers and other prognosticators to happily predict their outcomes. And we'll leave it at that for now.

Welcome to the Show!